Sunday, July 15, 2012

Tremseh Massacre Induces More Hand-Wringing on Syria

It's long past time for regime change in Damascus. The question is how to do it without making things worse.

Here's Reuel Marc Gerecht's plan, "To Topple Assad, Unleash the CIA":


Does President Barack Obama want Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad to fall?

He's said he does, but fear of an interventionist slippery slope, re-election concerns, and anxiety about America's prominence in the Middle East have severely limited U.S. efforts to topple the Damascus regime. Shaming Russia into forsaking its Syrian ally appears to be the coup de grĂ¢ce that Mr. Obama and his indignant secretary of state are still counting on.

This approach may not differ much from that of Mitt Romney, who has studiously avoided revealing what he would do in Syria. Even on the more hawkish right, there isn't a lot of appetite for committing U.S. military power to the conflict, except perhaps via the air in conjunction with Turkey. Tempers in Ankara are rising against the Assad regime, but Turkish civilian and military leaders still don't want to send tanks to establish Syrian "safe havens" for rebels and refugees whom Turkey is supporting on its side of the border.

Yet there is an alternative that could crack the Assad regime: a muscular CIA operation launched from Turkey, Jordan and even Iraqi Kurdistan. The trick for Washington is to go in big, deploying enough case officers and delivering paralyzing weaponry to the rebels as rapidly as possible.

Press reports already suggest that a rudimentary, small-scale CIA covert action is under way against Assad. But these reports, probably produced by officially sanctioned White House leaks, reveal an administration trying not to commit itself. According to Syrian rebels I've heard from, the much-mentioned Saudi and Qatari military aid—reportedly chaperoned by the CIA—hasn't arrived in any meaningful quantity.

Odds are that it won't, as the Saudis and Qataris are incapable of running arms on the scale required. Institutionally, intellectually and culturally, it's not their cup of tea. And intelligence officers tell me that the White House hasn't ordered Langley to move the weaponry. To the extent Syria's rebels have recently improved their performance, the reason is better coordination among the Free Syrian Army's units, more defections from regime forces, and raids on regular army depots.

But Langley can move weapons and rapidly develop complementary intelligence networks inside Syria. It may not do these feats brilliantly, but it can certainly do them better than anyone in the region.
And FWIW, see the report from Charles Dunne, David Kramer, and William H. Taft IV, at the Washington Post, "What the U.S. should do to help Syria."

RELATED: Telegraph UK has the background, "Analysis: What lies behind the Syrian massacres?"

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